To be honest, I am shocked that the market rates the GOP's chances so highly. I'm guessing the only reason why the GOP is deemed to have any chance at all is because the Dems may nominated Hillary.
Monday, April 30, 2007
GOP's inexorable slide
This graph from the Iowa Futures Market shows how betters are rating the Democrats' versus the Republicans' chances at the White House in '08. The red line represents the GOP, the blue line the Dems, and the numbers on the Y axis more or less correspond to the percent chance that this market judges each party has of winning the Presidency.
To be honest, I am shocked that the market rates the GOP's chances so highly. I'm guessing the only reason why the GOP is deemed to have any chance at all is because the Dems may nominated Hillary.
To be honest, I am shocked that the market rates the GOP's chances so highly. I'm guessing the only reason why the GOP is deemed to have any chance at all is because the Dems may nominated Hillary.
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Nils,
While I think the IEM is the best run, most trustworthy of the slew of info markets now out there, here's some interesting data. On inTrade, the market is saying Hillary is about 25% likely to be the next president, with Barak just behind at about 21%. You can see more details at: http://tinyurl.com/38meo5
Other interesting results, that may just be resulting from illiquidity: Clinton is rated as 45% or so likely to be the Dem nominee, but were she to lose that, she's only 5% likely as the VP. So, the market thinks she's a 'go big or go home' kinda lady. I guess she's already been VP for 8 years....
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