Thursday, June 12, 2008

No coattails for Obama

The latest polling data suggests that Obama's victory over McCain will be smaller than his party's overall victory against the GOP. In other words, no coattails. And that will make it hard for Obama to push any particular legislative agenda.

I'm writing a longer post on which previous presidency the Obama presidency is most likely to resemble. Part of the answer depends on whether Obama is able to correctly perceive the proper historical antecedent. Is he most likely to folow the path of Reagan, Carter, or Kennedy?

1 comment:

Robby said...

The basic poll comparison does not account for other factors, e.g., voter turnout and the effect on Democrats in red states, that Obama could affect.