Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Multiple Bubble Trouble

Feel like having the complacent shit scared out of you today?

Just read this note from a Morgan Stanley economist on the multiple bubbles affecting the global economy. The lede:
The world may be in the middle of the biggest bubble in history. The bubble (e.g., property, stock, commodities) could exceed 50% of global GDP in value. The key cause of the bubble is that the major central banks failed to lower inflation targets to account for the combination of productivity acceleration due to IT and the new upward stickiness in wages due to the influx of three billion people into the global economy since the mid-1990s.
And he doesn't even take into account what might happen if a global economic collapse, causing demand for Chinese products to collapse, motivates the Chinese to call in their U.S. Treasury notes....

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