Things are going great in Iraq, according to the President, who today rejected a prediction by Brent Scowcroft (his dad's National Security advisor) that the January 30 elections in Iraq will merely be a prelude to "an incipient civil war." As evidence to the contrary, Bush noted that in 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces things "appear to be relatively calm."
Problem is, the 4 provinces where things are "relatively uncalm" contain half of Iraq's population. Moreover, if the U.S.'s military planners are right, the violence is only going to get worse between now and the end of the month. The all but inevitable result will be that the elections will be widely viewed as illegitimate. And that cannot help but spur sectarian (and possibly ethnic) discord.
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